Investors and fund managers are concerned about the rising global tension. As the trade ways are at risk of attacks by some groups, the global trades suffer from one of the fundamental issues: Security.
The lack of security, inevitably, hits the prices of things and the purchasing power of people as the sellers reflect all the changes in the costs directly to the prices. Another big threat against the global trade is that there is a common expectation that the scope of the conflict may grow and it may turn into a war between two sides.
Unfortunately, this terrible projection is not impossible to take place. Though we cannot change anything as common people, we might be the group that will experience the hardship financially and socially.
What about the central banks? What to expect?
Steady Interest Rates by FED is Expected
The website called CME Group FED Watch represents the mutual expectations of people from the upcoming FED meeting.
First of all, the expectations from this monthly meeting are from the side of stable rates to skip the interest rate cuts for the first meeting of the year. However, the second and third meetings play a crucial role for markets, including crypto ecosystem, as the narrative is the interest rate cuts to happen soon.
According to the table, we may even skip the rate cuts in the meeting of March! That might shake the markets because the realistic point of view was based on the possibility of a rate cut in March to energize the market. However, considering the growing waves of fear, uncertainty and doubt, we can make it to JUNE!
This may seem rather pessimistic but the whole world will experience another leg of inflation.
Inflation 2.0
It sounds scary but the risks will increase the prices of insurance, the prices of each unit traded overseas. The things that are traded from different continents may no longer be provided as cheaply as before. As a result, it is highly possible that we see the interest rates stable, the global tension high and the prices up and strong again.
The dot - plot show a " good " picture of the future but we may assume that all these interest rate cuts can be postponed to the second half of the year due to the current geopolitical crisis. Though inflation was almost under the control of central banks, there are always some black swans to hit the economy.
I still believe in the possibility of 3 interest rate cuts in 2024. However, I'm going to take positions according to the schedule that will based on the first interest rate cut to happen as early as June. Sadly, the other possibilities seem a bit unlikely regarding the latest updates.
What do you think about the interest rate projections?
Share your expectations below 👇
Hive On ✌🏼
Posted Using InLeo Alpha
