The crypto world is getting a bit excited about the news that Apple could be allowing 3rd party integration to its wallet. This would include one that allows for crypto payments.
While this is pushing the narrative of another leg of the bull market, I think this completely misses the point. People look at cryptocurrency as financial when it is, in fact, technological. Certainly, it can fill many financial use cases. However, the expansion is going to mirror technological trends.
This means we are dealing with a technology that has the ability to follow many of the "laws" that we see in the digital world. It is also imperative to understand this at a time when artificial intelligence is rapidly expanding. The two are linked although few people seem to discuss this.
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Cryptocurrency as a Technology
Cryptocurrency resides in the digital world. It is really nothing more than data that is stored on a ledger. Due to its ties to the market, it has a price associated with it. That said, this is really nothing new. Tokens actually go back to the 1940s when computing was first introduced. They died off as technology went down different paths but were revived.
What we are dealing with is a technological component with the computing realm. While cryptocurrency gets the majority of the attention, we see tokens being used in chatbots. People involved in this field talk about the token windows (size of the prompt capabilities) while some UIs will reveal the tokens/sec used.
Anytime we see an integration by a well known company, we should view this as the technology of tokens is expanding. Of course, there is no difference between cryptocurrency and the tokens used for LLM. It is the same technology. The key difference is one has a market where they can be traded. Another is what the token represents within an ecosystem.
The next generation Internet, called Web 3.0, is going to have tokenization throughout. One reason we can make this statement is based upon the AI technology. Tokens are a part of these models, something that is not going away. People are also going to keep experimenting with them, creating newer innovations that increase token utility.
Again, this discussion is outside the market and pricing. We are dealing with technology.
Technology Changing The Economy
It is not difficult to find people online discussing the idea of how technology, specifically generative AI, is going to change the economy.
Many are starting to question how things will look over the next decade based upon the expected advancement of LLMs. This can be expanded to include other facets of AI, such as image recognition and deep learning.
The most obvious point is what will people do if the jobs are taking over by computers and robots. Naturally, this is a highly contended point, outside our focus here. However, it is a valid question based upon the pace we are seeing things change.
Hence, the idea of AI changing the economy is something that many can see. But what about tokenization? If this is a technology, does it have similar potential?
I think the answer is affirmative.
The tentacles of technology expand. This means a larger percentage of the economy gets affected. It is also disruptive meaning many industries are at risk. While the focus is financial, tokenization has the ability to alter most businesses.
Of course, it is a bit difficult to see since we are at the early stages, relatively speaking.
Consider this point: what did computers do? There was a time when computers were questioned for their viability. Some even claimed there was a need for only a handful globally. We know how far off that projection was.
Can you image the world today without computers? Is there anyone who questions how they changed every industry? This is crystal clear to people.
The same is not true for tokenization, at this point. We still lack the infrastructure, innovation, and interconnectivity required to be a massive force.
To me, this is the area to monitor. If we see progress here, then we know a major shift is taking place.
Quantification
Tokens are mechanisms that quantify certain activities. Again, we have a variety of attributes associated with them which can vary. However, the overall premise holds.
When I try to bore down to the basics, what is it that tokens represent? I think the answer to this question reveals a great deal.
Tokens equate to computerization. This can be storage, processing, or bandwidth. Here is where we see the integration within the entire digital world.
Much of what we do is based upon processing. The world is hungry for this. Storage of growing amount of data, along with the processing, is also huge. We are looking at an estimated $300 billion in data centers over the next few years in the United States alone. That is a lot of compute going online.
Tokens are becoming a unit of measure.
For example, how many words does a token equate to? When ChatGPT first came out, it was about .75 words per token. I saw some estimate that we now have 1.75 words per token.
The efficiency of these systems is increasing.
It is something evidenced by what tokens do.
When it comes to AI language models such as OpenAI’s GPT-3, the token limit plays a more critical role than many might initially think. It’s not merely a parameter to ensure conversation lengths don’t go beyond an acceptable range. It’s also about maintaining both the performance and cost-efficiency of the model.
Tokens are being used to maintain performance and cost efficiency while also improving in capabilities. That is technology.
As this expands, we will see it impact cryptocurrency. Certainly, not every token will have a market to trade. In fact, it is likely most tokens are not traded in the financial sense. They do, however, have value and can be utilized in ways to evolve the digital realm.
For example, if tokens are units of compute, in some way, what does this mean? How does this affect the value? Here is where a host of possibilities open up. Innovation along with infrastructure could mean that we are dealing with an entirely new economic model.
Instead of swapping for currency, this could equate to access to compute. To go one step further, we could even apply this to units of energy.
Try to do that using your Visa card.
Cryptocurrency is going to take over since it is a technology. Tokenization is going to expand along an innovative path that far exceeds the physical world. Here is where the legacy systems will be in trouble.
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