Here's my analysis of the situation.
The correction started on March 14th, on Thursday. I believe it was a short-term plan that involved provoking the correction until the weekend. The complicated part was to keep the daily candles red on Thursday and Friday when ETFs were on the other side buying. Whoever planned this needed all the help they could get, like massive liquidations of long positions.
The pushdowns began early in the morning (night in America) before Wall Street opened for business.
To the max, it dropped something like 7-8% on March 14th, then buyers kicked in when American markets opened and it only dropped something like 4-5% at the end of the day.
On Friday, a similar scenario, on a higher volume. Bitcoin dropped significantly early in the day and recovered a big part of the loss after ETF purchases started.
Then Saturday came. No more ETF activity, since Wall Street works on banking days, and weekends are off.
Bitcoin dropped again, as in the previous days, but never recovered, because there was nobody on the other side to buy continuously in significant volumes.
Note the volume on Saturday is lower than on the previous days but higher than the "regular" weekend volumes, which means the pushdown was resisted.
Then today came. slightly in the green. My impression is that whoever provoked the correction can't afford to keep pushing against the tide, knowing that tomorrow ETFs start to play again, and they are less motivated to push down.
Regarding ETFs, why would they still be the "fouls" that keep buying, no matter the price? First of all, the price is low for them, much lower than many anticipated given how much bitcoin they amassed. Secondly, I believe they won't reverse course until they have a much more sizeable investment in Bitcoin or until it becomes way harder to buy them from truly strong hands. Then they will switch their play, but I imagine by that time they will have the necessary derivatives in play so they can earn on the downtrend as well.
Now, this is where the story of this correction ends, or I am wrong and we enter a few months of slow bleeding, side movements, and fake signs of recovery, as we had in the past. We might still have that. But I believe the market is not ready yet to go down. Right now, however, it doesn't seem very convinced to go up either... Maybe they wait to see what happens tomorrow...
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Posted Using InLeo Alpha
