Last week, everyone was counting down. It looked like a U.S.-Iran deal was coming. The war would end, the Strait would reopen, oil prices would fall, and markets would calm down. And then... nothing. Trump came out and said he was 'in no rush.' That if he didn't get what he wanted, he would 'finish it militarily.' And the war has now entered its fourth month.
WHAT TRUMP SAID
On Saturday, Trump gave an interview to Fox News, and that's when the cold shower came. He basically said: sure, I'd like the deal to happen quickly. But I'm not in a hurry.
"I'd like to say I'm in a hurry because gasoline prices would collapse," he said. "But if you're in a hurry, you don't make a good deal."
And he added something even tougher: "We're going to make a great deal, or we'll finish it militarily."
So what does he want? Mainly two things. First, Iran must agree that it will never acquire a nuclear weapon. And pay attention to this detail: Trump said he added a clause to the text prohibiting Iran not only from building a nuclear weapon, but also from buying one. Second, the Strait of Hormuz must reopen immediately.
According to an Axios report, Trump requested changes to the draft agreement regarding how Iran's nuclear material would be handled and the reopening of Hormuz.
On Friday, Trump wrote a lengthy post on Truth Social. He said he would enter the Situation Room to make the 'final decision' and laid out all of his conditions.
Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. Hormuz must reopen immediately, with no tolls, allowing free navigation in both directions. The mines in the water must be neutralized. The naval blockade imposed by the United States 'will be lifted now.' And the enriched material, what he calls 'nuclear dust,' buried deep underground after the bombings eleven months ago, will be dug up by the United States and DESTROYED. He even said that the U.S. and China are the only countries with the engineering capability to do it. He added: 'No money will be exchanged until further notice.'
Sounds good. Except Iran is saying something completely different.
Iran's Fars news agency said Trump 'raised issues that contradict the agreement text.' They claim there is no clause about toll-free passage through the Strait, no reference to destroying nuclear material, and that the most important part of the deal is something entirely different: the immediate release of $12 billion from Iran's frozen assets. Without that, they say, negotiations will not continue.
'Who's telling the truth then?' you might ask. The honest answer is that we don't know. Mohsen Rezaee, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader, accused Trump of 'betraying diplomacy.' Two sides, two completely different versions of the same document.
HORMUZ
And this is where the part that affects all of us comes in. Because while everyone talks about diplomacy, what is really at stake is oil.
As we've discussed before, roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. And right now, it remains nearly impassable after Iran closed it at the start of the war. The result? U.S. gasoline prices have reached an average of $4.34 per gallon. And inflation has climbed to its highest level since May 2023.
As if that weren't enough, tensions continue to escalate. The Pentagon said Iran launched a ballistic missile toward Kuwait and sent drones around the Strait. The U.S. Treasury announced new sanctions. And there is also a dispute involving Oman, which is reportedly discussing with Iran the possibility of charging tolls to ships passing through the Strait. Trump put it bluntly: 'Oman will comply like everyone else, or we'll blow them up.'
Meanwhile, the Iranians are playing hardball. Iran's parliamentary speaker, Ghalibaf, wrote: 'We extract concessions not through dialogue, but through missiles.' That gives you a sense of the atmosphere.
