PostsCommentsthauerbyi in #hive-engine • 4 hours agoREMARKS TO A CLOSED-DOOR MACRO ROUNDTABLEREMARKS TO A CLOSED-DOOR MACRO ROUNDTABLE, TRANSCRIBED Let's start with a number everyone in this room has been repeating without checking it. The Dollar Index sat at 101.23…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • yesterdayDown nearly half from the October 2025 high of $126,198Let's talk about the greatest hedge against fiat collapse that just had its worst ETF month since spot funds existed, because apparently nobody told bitcoin it was supposed to be…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 2 days agoThursday's tape, and why nobody in this building should sleep well tonightTO: Risk Committee RE: Thursday's tape, and why nobody in this building should sleep well tonight STATUS: Not for distribution. Obviously it will be distributed. I want to…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 3 days agoThe yen just hit 162.8 to the dollarThe yen just hit 162.8 to the dollar and somewhere in Tokyo a Ministry of Finance official is staring at a Bloomberg terminal the way you stare at a check engine light — knowing…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 5 days agoBuy The Dip, Sell The Dip, Repeat Until Liquidity DiesBuy The Dip, Sell The Dip, Repeat Until Liquidity Dies Six trading days. That's how long it took the AI trade to go from "BofA note triggers semis bloodbath, Nasdaq-100 sheds…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 6 days agoAn Open Letter to the Soft Landing ConsensusAn Open Letter to the Soft Landing Consensus To: Every strategist who wrote "one more cut and we're done" in the fourth quarter of 2024 You were so close. The disinflation…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 7 days agoWarsh's Opening Move Was Hawkish. The Bond Market Isn't Fully Convinced.Warsh's Opening Move Was Hawkish. The Bond Market Isn't Fully Convinced. On June 17th, the two-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points in a single session. That was the…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 8 days agoThe Sheriff Arrived Just As The Outlaws Left TownThe Sheriff Arrived Just As The Outlaws Left Town The May PCE report came in Thursday and it was, by almost every headline metric, the number that Warsh hawks have been…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 9 days agoThursday, 9:47 AM. The PCE Just Printed. Someone Is Buying Wendy's.Thursday, 9:47 AM. The PCE Just Printed. Someone Is Buying Wendy's. The number hits at 8:30. Headline PCE 4.1%, highest in three years. Core at 3.4%. In line with estimates…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 10 days agoMACRO DESKINTERNAL NOTE — MACRO DESK Re: The Energy Trade Has Turned. Update Your Models. Brent closed at $73.74 on Wednesday. WTI at $70.34. Both at their lowest level since before…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 11 days agoSeven Funerals and a Bond MarketSeven Funerals and a Bond Market Britain is about to inaugurate its seventh prime minister in roughly a decade. Let that integer breathe for a moment. Seven. In the same…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 12 days agoThe Night Before MicronThe Night Before Micron It's the night before Micron reports and I'm doing what I always do the night before a memory company reports a potentially cycle-defining number:…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 13 days agoThe Warsh Dove Trade. An Autopsy.INTERNAL — RATES & MACRO DESK Re: The Warsh Dove Trade. An Autopsy. Monday, June 22 Let's get this done quickly so we can move on. The thesis was clean. Too clean, in…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 14 days agoTo Every Fund Manager Who Put SPCX In Their Model Portfolio This WeekTo Every Fund Manager Who Put SPCX In Their Model Portfolio This Week [Memo format. No sender. No recipient. You know who you are.] Let's establish what actually…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 15 days agoThe 500 Doesn't Know What It Is AnymoreThe 500 Doesn't Know What It Is Anymore Sometime before Monday's open, a committee of investors who never touched a can of soup in their professional lives will finally finish…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 16 days agoCongratulations, You Bought a CalendarCongratulations, You Bought a Calendar SpaceX went from $135 to $225.64 in five trading sessions and nobody on financial television could stop talking about the human spirit.…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 17 days agoThe Currency That Prints ItselfThe Currency That Prints Itself Six trading days. That's how long it took SpaceX to go from a $135 IPO price to a market cap large enough to leapfrog Microsoft. The company…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 18 days agoThe Producer Price IndexThe Producer Price Index doesn't usually get its own day in the sun. It's the data release that exists to be quoted in someone else's report about the data release that mattered.…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 19 days agoNotes From a Long Position That Did Not Survive JuneNotes From a Long Position That Did Not Survive June The first crack was $72,840. Intraweek high, end of May, and I remember thinking that was the number where this finally…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 20 days agoThe mathMEMO TO: The pension fund trustees who think they made an active decision this quarter FROM: The math RE: You now own a piece of SPCX whether you wanted to or not Let's…
