thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 9 hours agoRATES STRATEGYRE: The silence isn't working Somebody needs to say plainly what the desk has been dancing around all week: Kevin Warsh built a monetary policy framework on the premise that a…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • yesterdayDigital Gold, Actual Gold, and the Gap Between ThemDate: July 24, 2026 This is not the letter I wanted to write this quarter, but the data forces the issue, so let's deal with it directly. Brent crude has moved 36% higher…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 2 days agoLong End Duration Exposure — Q3 ReviewRE: Long End Duration Exposure — Q3 Review Someone needs to explain to the desk why we keep modeling the 30-year as a rates trade when it has behaved, for six months running…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 3 days agoHistory doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoicesHistory doesn't repeat, but the 1970s are sending invoices. Oil at $91, semis ripping higher, Trump slapping 50% tariffs on Canadian staples while U.S. strikes hit double…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 4 days agoPREPARED REMARKSLet's talk about the least honest asset in the world right now, and I mean that with real admiration for how well it's lying. Gold hit $5,595 an ounce in late January — a…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 5 days agoBitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn't.Bitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn't. Somebody go find whoever wrote the 2021 whitepaper explaining why bitcoin was "digital gold" and ask them to…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 6 days agoBitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn'tBitcoin Was Supposed to Save You From This Exact Week. It Didn't. Somebody explain the number to me, because I've stared at it for ten minutes and it still doesn't parse.…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 7 days ago Kimi K3. Two point eight trillion parametersI had the Bloomberg terminal open to six windows and none of them were saying anything I wanted to see. SOX down another 5.7%. Micron red. Marvell red. AMD bleeding out for the…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 8 days agoIBM Just Told You the Emperor's Software Has No ClothesIBM Just Told You the Emperor's Software Has No Clothes Nobody wants to talk about IBM this week because it's inconvenient. Twenty-five percent gone in a session isn't a stock…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 9 days agoBuffett Says the Quiet Part Out Loud, and the Market Keeps Dancing AnywayBuffett Says the Quiet Part Out Loud, and the Market Keeps Dancing Anyway Every speculative peak has its designated Cassandra, and this cycle's is an eighty-something oracle…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 10 days agoMessaging Coherence Following Chair's House TestimonyMEMORANDUM — FOR INTERNAL CIRCULATION ONLY RE: Messaging Coherence Following Chair's House Testimony, July 14 FROM: Office of Communications Strategy TO: Committee…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 11 days agoKevin Warsh Walks Into Congress With a Live Grenade and Everyone's Pretending It's a Press ReleaseKevin Warsh Walks Into Congress With a Live Grenade and Everyone's Pretending It's a Press Release Tomorrow a man who has given fewer press conferences than his last three…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 12 days agoRemarks Prepared for No One in ParticularRemarks Prepared for No One in Particular (delivered, in the writer's head, to an empty conference room somewhere between Sintra and Seongnam) Thank you. I'll skip the…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 13 days agoOn the Matter of Whose Balance Sheet This Actually IsMemo: On the Matter of Whose Balance Sheet This Actually Is TO: Capital Allocation Committee RE: Q3 planning assumptions, AI infrastructure line item CLASSIFICATION:…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 14 days agoOn the Fed's New Policy of Strategic AmbiguityInternal Memo: On the Fed's New Policy of Strategic Ambiguity RE: Why "no forward guidance" is just guidance you have to pay a subscription fee to hear To whoever still…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 15 days agoWhy we keep buying dips that shouldn't existMEMO TO: Risk Committee FROM: Trading Desk RE: Why we keep buying dips that shouldn't exist CLASSIFICATION: Read twice, forward never Someone needs to explain to me…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 16 days agoGold fell 1.65% on a day the United States bombed Iran for the second consecutive nightGold fell 1.65% on a day the United States bombed Iran for the second consecutive night. Sit with that for a second, because it's the whole story. The traditional…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 17 days agoTrading desk, macro bookMEMO TO: Trading desk, macro book FROM: [redacted] RE: Today's 2pm liquidity event, and why silence is not a strategy, it's a hedge against being wrong out loud…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 18 days agoThe number came in at 57,000 and nobody bothered to catch itThe number came in at 57,000 and nobody bothered to catch it. It just sat there on the tape, dead weight next to a Dow that closed at 53,055.91 — a record, the fourth in two…thauerbyi in #hive-engine • 19 days agoTomorrow's "Rebalancing Event" and Why We're Not Calling It ThatMEMO: RE: Tomorrow's "Rebalancing Event" and Why We're Not Calling It That TO: Risk Committee FROM: Trading Desk RE: SpaceX (SPCX) Nasdaq-100 Inclusion, Effective July 7…
