thauerbyi in #waivio • 18 hours agoWhen the Pattern Breaks, Everything ChangesWhen the Pattern Breaks, Everything Changes A note on what we're really witnessing in these first days of 2026, and why the most successful traders are suddenly quieter than…thauerbyi in #waivio • 2 days agoThe Venezuela Playbook Is Old. The Markets Know It. (And So Do You, You Just Won't Admit It.)The Venezuela Playbook Is Old. The Markets Know It. (And So Do You, You Just Won't Admit It.) Let me be direct: When the S&P 500 hits a record on the day the U.S. abducts a…thauerbyi in #waivio • 3 days agoInside the Brain of a Trader on the Maduro Monday When Nothing Made SenseInside the Brain of a Trader on the Maduro Monday When Nothing Made Sense 9:30 AM. Markets open. 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The S&P 500 closed at 6,858.47 on…thauerbyi in #waivio • 7 days agoThe Two-Speed Market: Why Divergence Is the Story of 2026The Two-Speed Market: Why Divergence Is the Story of 2026 History doesn't repeat, but markets do rhyme. And right now, entering 2026, the rhyme scheme is shifting in ways that…thauerbyi in #waivio • 7 days agoThe Schism at the Fed: What the December Minutes Reveal About 2026The Schism at the Fed: What the December Minutes Reveal About 2026 Markets reopen tomorrow after a four-day holiday. The S&P 500 sits at 6,845. Wall Street's year-end targets…thauerbyi in #waivio • 9 days agoThe Fed Talks Out of Both Mouths and Markets Can't Stop LaughingThe Fed Talks Out of Both Mouths and Markets Can't Stop Laughing Three dissents. That's the number that matters. Three voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee…thauerbyi in #waivio • 10 days agoAnyone Still Holding December 2024 Conviction TradesINTERNAL MEMO RE: The Unraveling. December 29-30, 2025 TO: Anyone Still Holding December 2024 Conviction Trades FROM: Market Operations DATE: Dec 30, 2025…thauerbyi in #waivio • 11 days agoThe Yen Carry Trade Isn't Dead—It's Just Learning to Bleed DifferentlyThe Yen Carry Trade Isn't Dead—It's Just Learning to Bleed Differently There's a specific moment in financial history where everyone realizes they've been living inside a…thauerbyi in #waivio • 12 days agoWhen the Winner Stops Competing (And Starts Acquiring)When the Winner Stops Competing (And Starts Acquiring) There's a moment in every market cycle that announces itself quietly, without fanfare. Nvidia's $20 billion licensing…thauerbyi in #waivio • 13 days agoWhen Volume Whispers Louder Than PriceWhen Volume Whispers Louder Than Price There's a line in Michael Lewis's Flash Boys where a trader notices that markets move in ways that don't match the direction of…thauerbyi in #waivio • 14 days agoThe Holiday Graveyard: What Bitcoin's December Tells Us About JanuaryThe Holiday Graveyard: What Bitcoin's December Tells Us About January Bitcoin is at $87,366. BlackRock's IBIT bled $91 million in a single day this week. Ethereum ETFs? $52.7…thauerbyi in #waivio • 15 days agoThe System Is Shouting, But Which Way?The System Is Shouting, But Which Way? What's actually happening when your indicators contradict themselves Three days before Christmas, the financial system achieved…thauerbyi in #waivio • 16 days agoThey Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything.They Fed You GDP Numbers and You Cheered. Here's Why That Ruins Everything. I need to say this plainly: Yesterday's market move was a lie dressed up in thin volume and holiday…thauerbyi in #waivio • 17 days agoThe Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026The Crypto Winter That Isn't: What $3 Trillion in Assets Actually Reveals About 2026 Somewhere around $88,000, Bitcoin stopped being interesting and became something else. A…thauerbyi in #waivio • 18 days agoThe Stagnation Trap: When Bullish Headlines Meet Chopped PricesThe Stagnation Trap: When Bullish Headlines Meet Chopped Prices What Actually Happened This Week (And Why It Matters Less Than You Think) Last Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq…thauerbyi in #waivio • 19 days agoThe Morning I Stopped Understanding Which Way Was UpThe Morning I Stopped Understanding Which Way Was Up The CPI number hit at 2.7% on Thursday—softer than expected, softer than the 3.1% people were bracing for—and for about…thauerbyi in #waivio • 20 days agoTikTok Got Bought (Probably), and Everything BrokeTikTok Got Bought (Probably), and Everything Broke A Visceral Tour of Markets Unraveling on Fundamentals Thursday morning I watched Oracle stock gap up 5% in pre-market. By…
