thauerbyi in #waivio • 15 hours agoThe Gravity Returns: What Today's Rally Actually SignalsThe Gravity Returns: What Today's Rally Actually Signals October 20, 2025 Bitcoin crossed $110,000 again. Ethereum bounced back above $4,000. The S&P 500 is up for the week…thauerbyi in #waivio • 2 days agoWhen The Fed Says "Narrow" But You Heard "Sell Everything"When The Fed Says "Narrow" But You Heard "Sell Everything" Monday morning. 9:47 a.m. The S&P's bouncing around 6,664, up 0.53% on the day, which is just enough to make you…thauerbyi in #waivio • 3 days agoThe Tariff Tango: A Waltz We've Danced BeforeThe Tariff Tango: A Waltz We've Danced Before There's a rhythm to how capital markets respond to trade threats. Not a pattern, exactly—nothing that predictable. But a rhythm. A…thauerbyi in #waivio • 4 days agoMEMORANDUMMEMORANDUM TO: Portfolio Managers, Risk Officers, Capital Allocation Committee FROM: Market Structure and Systemic Risk Unit DATE: October 18, 2025 RE: The…thauerbyi in #waivio • 5 days agoThe Day the Government Became a Crypto Whale (And Nobody Noticed)The Day the Government Became a Crypto Whale (And Nobody Noticed) It's 3 a.m. on October 15 and I'm reading an FBI press release about how the U.S. Department of Justice is now…thauerbyi in #waivio • 6 days agoINTERNAL MEMO: Re: The Week Industrial Fragility Became VisibleINTERNAL MEMO: Re: The Week Industrial Fragility Became Visible TO: Portfolio managers still pretending supply chains are "resilient" FROM: Reality DATE: October…thauerbyi in #waivio • 7 days agoThe Tariff Spiral: A Memo to Myself on Why I Drank Coffee at 11 PMThe Tariff Spiral: A Memo to Myself on Why I Drank Coffee at 11 PM I'm watching MP Materials up 15%, USA Rare Earth up 19%, Energy Fuels up more than 10%. These are the stocks…thauerbyi in #waivio • 8 days agoWhen a Post Moves Markets: The Week a Rare Earth Metal Rewrote the Bull CaseWhen a Post Moves Markets: The Week a Rare Earth Metal Rewrote the Bull Case The bull market that was supposed to be boring just learned how to be dangerous. For six months…thauerbyi in #waivio • 9 days agoMemo to Central Bankers: Nobody Asked YouMemo to Central Bankers: Nobody Asked You FROM: Someone Who's Watched This Movie Before TO: The IMF, The Bank of England, and Everyone Else with a Microphone RE:…thauerbyi in #waivio • 10 days agoThe Government Shutdown Is Teaching Us Something We ForgotThe Government Shutdown Is Teaching Us Something We Forgot A thought experiment: You're running the world's largest economy. Your central bank just cut rates because inflation…thauerbyi in #waivio • 11 days agoINSIDE THE CASINO: A Dialogue With Nobody in ParticularINSIDE THE CASINO: A Dialogue With Nobody in Particular October 10, 2025 Me: So Delta reports Q3 earnings at $1.71 per share. That's 18 cents above consensus. They guide…thauerbyi in #waivio • 12 days agoThe Chip Wars Just Became the Chip CapitulationThe Chip Wars Just Became the Chip Capitulation What happened Monday tells you everything you need to know about where we are in the AI cycle. OpenAI just signed a…thauerbyi in #waivio • 13 days ago497,099 Reasons to Panic Buy497,099 Reasons to Panic Buy The tax credit died September 30th. Tesla reported Q3 deliveries October 2nd. The number was 497,099—a company record, crushing Bloomberg…thauerbyi in #waivio • 14 days agoA Conversation With My Portfolio at 2 AMA Conversation With My Portfolio at 2 AM Me, staring at screens: So Bitcoin just touched $125,600 yesterday. That's real. Portfolio: And you're still holding oil…thauerbyi in #waivio • 15 days agoInternal Memo: To All Portfolio Managers, Re: The $500 Billion HallucinationInternal Memo: To All Portfolio Managers, Re: The $500 Billion Hallucination FROM: Chief Investment Office DATE: October 6, 2025 RE: Market Positioning in Light of…thauerbyi in #waivio • 16 days agoCONFIDENTIAL – RISK COMMITTEE MEETING MINUTESCONFIDENTIAL – RISK COMMITTEE MEETING MINUTES Date: October 5, 2025 Time: 08:00 EST Subject: Quarterly Portfolio Review & Current Market Positioning Attendees:…thauerbyi in #waivio • 17 days agoMemo to Investors: On the Unserious Business of Taking AI SeriouslyMemo to Investors: On the Unserious Business of Taking AI Seriously FROM: Your Portfolio Manager's Conscience TO: Anyone Still Pretending Valuations Matter RE: The…thauerbyi in #waivio • 18 days agoInternal Monologue of a Market on Friday MorningInternal Monologue of a Market on Friday Morning 8:29 AM EST, October 3, 2025 One minute. I've been awake since Tokyo opened thirteen hours ago. Shanghai gave me a…thauerbyi in #waivio • 19 days agoINTERNAL MEMO: Trading Desk, October 2, 2025INTERNAL MEMO: Trading Desk, October 2, 2025 FROM: Risk Management TO: All Traders RE: Why You're All Wrong About Yesterday Let's start with what you got right:…thauerbyi in #waivio • 20 days agoINTERNAL MEMO: Beijing Just BlinkedINTERNAL MEMO: Beijing Just Blinked TO: All Portfolio Managers FROM: Trading Desk RE: China Industrial Profits & What They're Not Telling You DATE: October 1…