rose98734 in #economy • 5 days agoHow easy is it to bring manufacturing back to the US?This is obviously Trump's big dream. Yet the tariffs which he applied to China and other countries in his first term (which were kept in place and increased by Biden), didn't…rose98734 in #economy • 7 days agoNow Trump wants to impose tariffs on countries that have VATFirst of all, what is VAT? Here is a good explanation A value-added tax (VAT) is not a tariff, it is a consumption tax assessed on the value added in each production…rose98734 in #economy • 16 days agoHow should Canada respond to Trump's threats?The proposed tariffs have been suspended for one month - but that's no good as any business ordering for delivery after March 1st doesn't know what they're paying. And that's the…rose98734 in #economy • 26 days agoArgentina got a credit upgrade from MoodysPresident Milei has now been running Argentina since 10th December 2023, and his policy of cutting back state expenditure is starting to bear fruit. He argued that loose fiscal…rose98734 in #economy • last monthChina's trade surplus continues to soarHere is the chart: source The main culprit is sluggish domestic demand in China. Chinese consumers have slammed their wallets shut, and are instead focused orose98734 in #economy • last monthThe 30-year mortgage rate in the US rose for the fourth year in a rowIt ended 2024 at 6.9%. The last time mortgage rates rose for four consecutive years was in 1978 to 1981, when Paul Volcker was Chairman of the Federal Reserve and was engaged in…rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoThe S&P has had gains in excess of 20% for three consecutive yearsThe S&P 500 finished 2024 up 25%. It was the third consecutive year the S&P 500 grew by more than 20%. Here is the table showing growth rates since 1928: sourcerose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoThe German economy has become more dependent on the USATwenty-five years ago, most German exports went to France and Britain, with the balance going to other members of the EU. After the Great Financial Crash of 2008 and the Eurozone…rose98734 in #economy • 2 months agoIs the world heading towards recession?We've seen some shock moves by central banks in the last week. First, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points to 0.5% (one of the…rose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoIs France in trouble?French 10-year bond yields briefly rose above Greek 10-year yields. Greece, if you remember, was Ground Zero of the eurozone crisis of 2010 to 2014. Here is the chart: [source](rose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoGerman bond yields are climbingGermany has had exceptionally low bond yields for a long time. They actually dipped to minus 0.5% in 2019, which meant bond holders were paying the German government for the…rose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoWhich countries will be hit hardest by tariffs from the incoming Trump administration?President-elect Trump has vowed to put a blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States. Here are the countries Deutche Bank analysts think will be hardest hit: [source](rose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoJapan and China sold a record amount of US Treasuries in the third quarterSo now we know why US Treasury yields were soaring in the lead up to the US Presidential elections - two huge sovereign countries, Japan and China, were dumping some of their holdings. [source](rose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoA look at the house price crash in ChinaChina’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source Arose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoWill Germany reform it's debt-brake?The Scholz coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) collapsed last week, when Olaf Scholz fired his Finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP. The issue was the debt-brake. Scholz wanted…rose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoThe oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential electionHere is the chart: source It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support linerose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoIs the American economy really that strong if the Fed cuts rates in two consecutive meetings?So the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points following the 50 basis points cut in September. That's a cumulative 75 basis points. The last time we saw cuts like this was at…rose98734 in #economy • 3 months agoWhat does Trump's win mean for the US economy?Well, the bond markets think his Presidency could be inflationary, leading to higher interest rates. Here is what happened to the 10 year US Treasury bond yield on Nov 6th as the results came in:rose98734 in #economy • 4 months agoUS 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%Here is the chart: source They'd been heading downwards, right until the Fed in it's wisdom decided to cut the base rate by 50 basis points on Sept 18th 2024.rose98734 in #economy • 4 months agoBond markets react negatively to the UK budgetThe Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, tried to leak most of her budget in the weeks leading up to it, so that both markets and voters had a chance to digest it in bits…
