I disagree with your prediction of a clear Trump victory and a favorable environment for the markets. While Trump has a loyal base, there are strong indications that a "blue wave" is more likely this election cycle, and this could be beneficial for the economy, especially in the long term.

First, races in traditionally red states like Texas are unexpectedly close, with polls showing Ted Cruz in real danger of losing his Senate seat. This shift in Texas reflects a broader national trend, where tight races in key swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are not in Trump's favor. Trump lost the popular vote in both 2016 and 2020, and the fact that swing states are still competitive this close to the election suggests that the enthusiasm for Trump may not be as strong as it appears. His inability to win over a majority of the electorate in past cycles is a significant red flag for his reelection chances.

Moreover, while it’s true that a Republican win may reduce regulations for businesses, Democrats have historically boosted markets through increased government spending, which fuels economic activity. For example, the market performed well under Obama and Biden during the recovery from the financial crisis and pandemic. Democrats often prioritize infrastructure projects, stimulus packages, and social spending, which directly benefit industries like construction, healthcare, and green energy, leading to long-term growth. Investors are aware that Democratic administrations tend to inject more money into the economy, stimulating demand, and driving market growth.

In the end, while the markets might react positively to the prospect of reduced regulations in a Trump administration, a blue wave could bring more sustainable benefits through increased government spending, boosting the broader economy and fostering stronger consumer confidence.