Today, one of the most interesting economic news stories I've read is the publication of a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which pushes back peak oil consumption to 2050. Their previous report predicted it would occur sometime this decade, no later than 2030. Clearly, this radical shift in their forecasts has already sparked criticism and even accusations of politicization. As always, people don't like to hear the truth.
Image IA
This new report doesn't surprise me too much, since all these predictions about the end of oil are based more on the wishes of some international organizations and the EU than on tangible realities. Things look different in Asia, the Middle East, and South America. And let's not even mention Africa, which still needs to achieve development. The truth is, here in Europe, there's a lot of talk, but as always, little action. The only solution seems to be creating green taxes, but not incentivizing investment in green activities. Electric cars are expensive, and there's no infrastructure for most of the population. Only the import of Chinese cars is managing to carve out a small niche in the market. But even this is starting to face obstacles.
Next Generation funds are more useful for collecting fees and helping municipalities with their delayed projects than for bringing about real change. The blackouts in several countries have shown that governments have put the cart before the horse.
Given all these realities, it would be illogical to think that the world can truly do without oil in the short term. But, as we know, some people confuse wishful thinking with reality.
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