Things are moving rapidly.
Do you remember 2021? That was 3 years ago. The COVID lockdowns, which seem like yesterday, were four. time certainly does fly.
We are a little more than 4 months into 2024 and the world of robotics is on fire. There is massive progress being made each month, steps which take us closer to a robotic future.
How long do we have to prepare? The above timelines are good estimates.
Image generated by Ideogram
The Robots Are Coming
Manufacturing is about to go into overdrive.
As we near the end of this decade, it is highly probable that robots are in full production. There will be lines churning out millions of these each year. Which companies are involved really does not matter at this point. The key factor is that we are going to see them emerging in a massive way.
Right now we are watching the early development stages. Humanoid robots are advancing, showing progress along with versatility. By the end of the year, it is likely they are in many factories, doing real world work.
Tesla put out a video of the progress the Optimus bot made.
Give it a look:
https://inleo.io/threads/view/taskmaster4450le/re-leothreads-29q7pxq7g
There are a couple of things to take note of here.
The first is the fact the bot was doing actual work that would be done in a factory. While it is slow, this is of no concern. It can be sped up. The key is to get the dexterity right and ensure that it has the task down completely.
Another is the fact that there were a number of bots being "programmed" in one of the scenes. We also see people using mixed reality headsets, also training the system.
All of this leads to exponential progress. Whatever an individual bot learns can be uploaded to all of them.
This is a massively deflationary force that is about to enter different industries.
Bringing AI Into The Physical World
Robots are the bridge between AI and the physical world.
Most of us are aware of the progress being made with LLMs and other forms of AI. These are going to be a massive part of robotics.
In fact, there is a circular loops that is being established.
As the AI gets better, the robots can do more. This is enhanced by then having the robots input real world information, which the models can then be trained on. We further compound the results with more robots.
It doesn't take a math genius to figure out the exponential impact of this.
Of course, we could then add the other layer of many different companies working in this direction.
Unlimited TAM
The total addressable market (TAM) for humanoid robots is basically unlimited. Eventually, if we penetrate space in any significant way, it is likely these will be the first inhabitants of our space "colonies". This could be tied to space manufacturing, setting up camp on the moon, or even asteroid mining (No Bruce Willis up there).
On Earth, this is going to be a massive economic boom. How it all unfolds remains to be seen. What I can state is we are entering the Age of Abundance. As long as the raw materials are available, the robots will generate larger output. The key is we will see this done for less money.
Another factor is the overall costs.
While the robots are going to start out expensive, over time, we will see the costs drift lower. This is going to be due to a number of factors including Wright's Law and competition.
We are looking at another scenario which is slow, slow, and then takes off.
I would not be surprised to see a few million humanoid robots produced in 2026. Depending upon the pricing, the market is already there.
For NOW, the only challenge is to get the software trained while working on the dexterity, balance, and mobility of the bots themselves. We are looking at roughly a dozen companies in the US alone that are working on this. This is something that is likely mirrored in China, Japan and Europe.
They are coming. Are you ready?
What Is Hive
Posted Using InLeo Alpha