I know many have been waiting for this moment in crypto for a long time: when the bull market starts going parabolic. Many only like to call this time of the cycle bull market, even though the bull market started long ago. But it wasn't as exciting as the parabolic phase, right?
If we were to rhyme with the past, this is only stage 1 of the parabolic phase, which happens before the halving. We will likely see the bigger one later.
The question I know many are asking themselves these days is: to trade or not to trade the halving? Normally, after what is expected to be a strong push that just started, we are expected to have some pullback after the halving (and often starting before that), before the next and final parabolic phase of Bitcoin starts.
The question is, when pullback will happen, how deep will they be? Will we see something like a 30% drop again, or will ETFs soak up the offer much sooner?
I am not so sure about the ETF demand continuing to be so high during a parabolic phase. Maybe more noob investors would buy, but others will start taking profits. The ETFs already stopped having only capital flow-positive days (more buyers than sellers during a specific day), which is normal. Having a very long streak of days when inflows of capital are higher than outflows is not usual.
So, I believe if we have a strong parabolic move for halving (and it seems we will), we will likely have a strong correction as well before going into the final parabolic phase.
And ETFs will likely contribute to the correction, they won't slow down the drop until the prices become enticing enough for the expected second parabolic phase.
That will be an interesting time. Historically, when you look at halving parabolics, they no longer look like parabolics by comparison with the second ones that succeed them, where euphoria will reach uncontrollable levels. It will look more like small bumps on the road. But for us, at this moment in time, they will appear like parabolic movements. It's all about perspective. That's why people say everyone is an expert in hindsight.
If you see a big wave and that is the only thing you see, you might want to ride it. But if you know a dream wave follows, and you might miss it if you ride the first one, what do you do? I'm not a surfer, but to me, it seems like they would want to be sure to ride the dream wave.
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Posted Using InLeo Alpha
