It's Sunday again, so it's time for another technical analysis on $HIVE $BTC and ETH/BTC, to see what we can expect next week and get ready to react to each situation.
This week we had the monthly close on Wednesday and as suspected, we closed September with a bearish candle.
Last month price swept liquidity from the $0.1757 level and we have the monthly open at $0.1807. It's been five days since then and at the time of writing, $HIVE is still inside the bullish gap, that has been holding price for 54 months now and it is trading at $0.1873. It's too early to say anything about the monthly chart, but the good thing is so far, price is above the monthly open, so the current candle is bullish.
On the weekly time frame, price is delivering from a bearish order block (OB) set two weeks ago, last week price swept liquidity from the $0.1757 level and at the time of writing, $HIVE is trading above the weekly open, which was at $0.182. The current candle closes in about 11 hours, so we don't know yet what is going to be, but so far we have a bullish candle with an upper and lower shadow, still below the OB. For bullish continuation, price needs to get back and close above the OB, which is at $0.1985, in which case the swing high at $0.2151 is next. In case we get weakness in the market, I'm looking at $0.1639, $0.1568, or $0.1467 to be swept.
On the daily time frame, at the time of writing, price is sandwiched between a bearish gap, which rejected price on Friday, I dropped a snap about it, and a bullish gap created on Wednesday, which is being retested as we speak. The current candle has a long upside wick, which indicates there's not enough buying pressure to keep price up and chances are, we're going lower. However, we focus on what the chart gives us.
In case of more weakness and if the current bullish candle can't defend price, I'm looking at $0.1743 to be swept. In case we (somehow) get a reversal at some point here, and price manages to stay inside the gap or close above it (even better), the next target on the upside is the current swing high at $0.1945, after which comes $0.201 and the levels marked on the chart.
On the h4 time frame we have an interesting price action. At the time of writing, price got rejected by the bearish gap, it is still inside the bullish gap, which has been retested and rebalanced by the previous candle, price bounced off nicely, but then we got a drop and the current candle opened below the previous candle close. This is never good and indicates an illiquid market.
Price looks heavy, so chances for the gap to hold price are slim in my opinion, so I'm looking at the relative EQL to be swept at $0.185. In case the gap can still hold price and we get a reversal here, the bearish gap is to be retested next, after which the current swing high at $0.1945 is next.
$BTC has printed a new ATH today, at $125,849 and got back inside the range for now. There's a bullish gap on the leg up, which could be retested and should hold. We need to wait and see if this is a breakout or just another deviation, but after five bullish candles, I'd expect price to consolidate in this area a little, if not drop back below the range. I'd be cautious here as we're at resistance.
ETH/BTC swept some internal liquidity and got rejected by the bearish gap. Price seems to be consolidating in this area. I'm looking at 0.036094 on the downside and 0.03784 on the upside.
The US government is in shutdown currently, so next week's economic calendar is set, but we don't know which data, if any is going to be announced. So I'm leaving this here and we'll see.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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