This week my technical analysis post comes early because tomorrow we have a family event and I'm not sure how my day will go, so better early I think, than late. It's the weekend, not much is moving, so most likely tomorrow you'd get the same report, except for low time frame.
One week passed since the beginning of the month and there are still three left till the candle close. So far price is still bearish the the current monthly candle that was bullish in my last post, turned bearish. If I count my dealing range from $0.1467 to $0.6896, price is still below mid-range and looks really heavy. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see the lows at $0.1639, $0.1568 and $0.1467 swept. Don't get me wrong, I don't wish that to happen, but I don't make the rules, I'm just reading the chart. One more stunt from Trump and you'll see that happen.
The weekly chart is a bit more clear to me. Last week price closed below the weekly order block (OB), which means price now is delivering from a bearish OB. This week's candle is closing in 1 day and 8 hours but so far we have a bearish candle and chances for this one to become bullish are slim in my opinion as nothing screams bullish so far. Levels to watch on the downside are $0.2396 and $0.2108, which is an intermediate low, inside a fair value gap, that has been rebalanced and tested already, so I hope it can hold price, but in case it can't, the lows at $0.1639, $0.1568 and $0.1467 can be swept.
The daily chart looks interesting. Price swept liquidity from $0.2499, which I mentioned in my previous post. Right now the bullish gap marked with green on my chart, is holding price, but God knows for how long.
For bullish continuation, price needs to close above $0.2872 and hold, which is the top of two gaps overlapping each others, one bullish, the other bearish. If this level can hold, then $0.32 is next, which is equal lows.
In case price closes below the bullish gap (green box on the chart), that gap becomes resistance. Levels I'm looking at in that case are $0.2396 and $0.2108.
On a more granular scale, the h4 chart shows price retested mid-range and bounced off nicely. Should the current candle close as it is, I'd look for $0.2728 to be swept, which is relative equal lows and then $0.277. We have a bearish gap at that level, capping the market at the moment, so there's a chance price can reject there. In case the current level is lost, I'd look for $0.2478 to be swept and even $0.2396 to be retested.
$BTC still looks heavy. At the time of writing, price is slightly below mid-range and it looks like it's going to try to sweep liquidity below $84,594. If we don't get a bounce there, I'm looking at $81,413 and maybe $78,210 to be swept. The latter is a low inside a bullish FVG, which should defend price.
Should price reverse here, I'd watch $92,781 then $95,058 to be swept. At the moment, the bearish gap marked with yellow is capping a market, so for bullish continuation, price has to close above and invert it.
Next week we have again four red folder days, with important data releases, which can generate high volatility, but these days red folder news is coupled with Trump's manipulation, so whatever he says can move the market both ways. So protect your capital above all.
Remember, technical analysis is not about forecasting the price, but about reacting to what price does.
As always, this is a game of probabilities, not certainties. Also please note, this is not financial advice, it's my view and understanding of the market.
All charts posted here are screenshots from Tradinview.
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