Everyone's Looking Down

in Finance and Economy11 days ago

I spent a couple hours with a client today who works for a company going through "organisational changes". Their position should be safe for now, but that of the direct supervisor is up in the air, as well as their very experienced mentor has lost his position at the company also. In fact, they have "let go" of over half of the VPs globally - which is a large number and the people are nearly all well-tenured, experienced and in key roles.

But obviously not key enough.


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If the job has a component of repetitive work in it - it can be automated.

And pretty much all knowledge worker roles have repetitive tasks that can now be increasingly outsourced to machines to process with more speed, accuracy and in many cases, proficiency. Because they aren't drawing on years of experience - they are drawing on thousands of years of experience. They are learning the backgrounds, the rules and the desired outcomes, and making light work of what most knowledge workers would have previously hated doing anyway. And while this frees up time for more value-adding human activity, most roles are not designed for that space, and therefore it just becomes a way to reduce headcount, and therefore costs.

But what my client was thinking a bit about, was what these people will do after, since they are mostly in their fifties, and are far too experienced to start from the bottom, but are no longer in demand. They have families, they have their mortgage in the city, they have a life built up locally... starting again isn't easy. And even if they wanted to, no one is going to hire them because they are too qualified.

It is a shit situation.

And what we spent the time talking about past this was what kind of impact this has on them, their families and their own mental health. Something that I have considered a lot over the last few years. And in recent times, I have considered from the "loss" of a job angle also.

It definitely does have an impact on the psyche, as on top of the money situation, there are other factors, including the relationships with partner and children, the chase and rejection from applications, the dealing with different unemployment organisations (which is soul-sucking) and the change in self-worth, driven by not adding as much value as earlier. As I said to my client (who knows about my own current work situation), it is not that I am unemployed, but I am underemployed. I was doing much more earlier, and now I am doing what I was doing before I got another job on top, but it feels like I am doing nothing.

I asked my client what they had learnt from the situation so far, and the answer was they had learned they should be prepared that what is secure in work might change. What I added on top was that in terms of the money situation, prepare so that everything is covered with a pretty basic job - don't expand lifestyle too far, too fast. Always live well within means. Invest. Have multiple income sources.

We ran a mental scenario where he was back when they and their partner met at university, when they had just moved in together. Both of them were earning fuck all, yet they had money enough to have a good time with each other. And then I asked, if you lived like that now on your current salary, how much could you save? Essentially - they would be able to put away over eighty percent of their income. But there is no way they could now live on even 80% of their current income and maintain their current lifestyle.

Expense creep.

We keep expanding our expenditures in line with a growing salary, which is a natural way for animals to use resources. When there is plenty, that plenty gets spent, like kangaroos having babies when the rains come.

But when the droughts follow...

Most of us no longer have job security like in the past, yet most of us are also living our lives as if there is job security. We are expanding our expenses with the salary, under the assumption that if we lose one job, we could find something similar and earn about the same, if not more. But, I don't think that is the case anymore, and with the cost of living increases rapidly going up on top, it is even less likely.

We are spending based on future expectation.

And we are expecting too much from the future.

One day, things might be much better than today, but I believe that in the short term over the next decade or two, things are going to be significantly worse for a lot of us. With the changing technology, failing economic systems and corrupt governments and corporations that care nothing about humanity, things have to change. But, that change is going to take a lot of pain to get the ball rolling, and then it is also going to have to go through a lot of evolution to get a working system up and running.

It isn't going to be easy.

Corporate restructuring is going to become increasingly commonplace, but the legislation required to fill the void needed to provide for a healthy society just isn't in place, and isn't even yet mentioned in most mainstream circles. The lag in activity is ridiculously long, because even though people know things need to change, no one wants to be the change.

I feel like the majority of us are looking down at our feet, hoping that when we look up, everything will be better. But, better just doesn't happen by accident in a society - there needs to be a shift in activity toward things that lead toward it. We focus on the "better", but what we really need to pay attention and act upon is the "do" part of the improvement equation.

Only a limited amount can be accomplished, by staring at the ground.

Taraz
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This post has been shared on Reddit by @flummi97 through the HivePosh initiative.

I totally know the reality of expense creep. We should have been putting away so much money into savings since last bull run when I was able to pay off most all of our debt. Here we are though with not much to show for it besides very little debt. I really don't think we have went that crazy either.

Not having much debt really does put you well ahead of almost everyone else...

That is true, but not having much savings also puts us one major breakdown away from being in debt again!

Low debt isn't enough. There also has to be the "well within means" otherwise it is spending as fast as it comes in.

Debt free is one thing - but that can still mean living from hand to mouth. I know a few who have low debt, but also don't have any extra to spend.

We are in a pretty good place, just still probably not where we could be. I think we need a little fine tuning here and there.

Include into the stress increased extreme weather events that will cause chaos in most regions of the world, and it seems very unlikely that the future will be easier or better for really many of us.

Does you client have kids now or is their family set up similar to when they met in university? I truly think most of us are going to have to learn to live with a lot less.

There are so many conditions and variables that come into play. It is a mess.

They have a child now (under one year).

I truly think most of us are going to have to learn to live with a lot less.

For many yes. But if the distribution was better, many would also get access to more.

I don't think there is a "healthy society" while we keep outsourcing everything to machines. In order to compete with machines, humans have to become machines, exploit themselves even more than they are now. I don't think that anybody is really willing to take on the restructuring necessary to stop the pendulum from swinging to that extreme. Even the educational system is focused on mass production, and becomes more and more machined, especially now that LLM/AI is proclaimed the new messiah for the lack of teachers (instead of making that job more attractive...). Just wrote a cynical post about that, if you like to read.

The expense part is always interesting to me. It depends so much on childhood. Lily's mom never had much, so for her it's important to give Lily what she wants to give her, not what Lily needs. We got into a lot of fights because I did not and still am not buying new clothes, but always used ones (except socks and undies). Today, Lily's mom cancelled their planned birthday trip because she doesn't have any money. I thought, but did not say - what do you think is more important to Lily? New clothes or a trip with you?

Saving as well as thinking ahead has to be taught, and to be learned. So has to be keeping the balance between that and enjoying life at the moment. It's the grey zone that matters there.

I don't think there is a "healthy society" while we keep outsourcing everything to machines.

I agree. Everything ends up dystopic.
I will have a read of the post soon :)

I thought, but did not say - what do you think is more important to Lily? New clothes or a trip with you?

Prioritisation is difficult, when we have been conditioned to prioritise what feels good now, at the expense of the future now.

Prioritisation is difficult, when we have been conditioned to prioritise what feels good now, at the expense of the future now.

Which then comes back to discipline - that at least is something that machines have 😝

When you are an old man, get employment would be worse,
People do not let, tomorrow would be bad very bad, and do not take advantage of their day and benefits today,
Told me if you see your situation today around 5 years ago, what can you changes in your lifestyle, I know you would be trying to spend less for the next day when the tiny cow do not milking you as today right.
The problem for a lot of us is, we need to pay for the parents expensive, our expensives, and the child expensive this give less for Dave but if would be posible I could do a cut in the expensive for example to eat outside.
Well this is hard but hive could helps us in the future we wait.

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By the way I love your flowers.

The problem for a lot of us is, we need to pay for the parents expensive, our expensives, and the child expensive this give less for Dave but if would be posible I could do a cut in the expensive for example to eat outside.

What I am hoping is that my daughter won't be forced to cover us as parents and will have a good base to start her own family, if she wants.

That is a cool flower!

It’s very painful
Losing a job or even just feeling insecure about it has become common, and the psychological and social impact is huge especially for those in middle age with many responsibilities.

especially for those in middle age with many responsibilities.

And for many, they have done everything "right" as society dictated, and now are struggling because of it.

A few years ago I could save 90-95% of my income. Now I think if I ever have such income again, I won't spend it all. Indeed, after 50 years old you need to have a good cash cushion. Especially for those people who don't know what it is to work for hire.

A few years ago, did you build reserves?

If buying gold items and some things that I then sold can be called reserves, then yes, I created reserves :)

It is beyond disgusting to dismiss people who have worked hard and provided service for years at the last minute. This will not only affect the person but also their family, and their entire order will be disrupted. People will have a hard time in the coming years, everyone should take precautions now.

and their entire order will be disrupted.

And society in general suffers too. A community is pulled together through the value people bring to it. That value today is working for money unfortunately.

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Moat individuals are always on a mission to secure a better living with the things they do that provides financial income which doesn't seem easy but in that aspect there is no choice due to the fact that expenses is needed to be paid off and the aim for a better living needs to be achieved.

There is a choice. Many just go into debt.