Guys, negotiations for a potential ceasefire between the US and Iran are still ongoing. The issue is that, no matter how much mediators try, I’m not seeing any light at the end of the tunnel.
There’s a proposal on the table for a roughly 45-day ceasefire, backed by countries like Pakistan, Egypt, and Turkey. In theory, this could be a first step toward de-escalation. In reality, though, neither side seems willing to take the step back that’s needed.
THE US POSITION
Trump came out and said that the 45-day proposal is “significant,” but not enough. And honestly, this is very typical of how he negotiates. On one hand, he acknowledges progress, but on the other, he raises the bar and applies pressure.
And not just pressure. He also set a clear deadline.
He gave Iran until Tuesday at 8 PM US time to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Otherwise, he warned of strikes on critical infrastructure like bridges and energy facilities. His rhetoric was quite aggressive, making it clear that he’s using threats as a negotiation tool.
In other words, the message from the US side is simple: comply, or the situation escalates.
IRAN’S RESPONSE
On the other side, Iran didn’t just reject the ceasefire proposal, it also set its own conditions. It’s asking for a permanent end to the conflict, lifting of sanctions, compensation for damages, and guarantees for safe passage through the Strait.
So it’s not looking for a temporary pause. It wants a final resolution.
And this is where the core problem lies. On one side, I see the US pushing for immediate compliance, and on the other, Iran refusing to step back unless it gets what it wants. Neither side is willing to compromise, which makes reaching an agreement extremely difficult.
Meanwhile, the conflict continues as normal. Attacks on energy infrastructure, drones, missile strikes. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, and that has massive consequences for global markets.
WHAT I’M SEEING IN THE MARKETS
And this is exactly what I’m seeing right now.
Oil prices are moving with intense volatility as investors try to figure out where this is heading. On one hand, there’s hope for a deal. On the other, there are constant threats of escalation.
Brent is sitting around $110, while WTI is close to $112. But the real issue isn’t just the price levels. It’s the uncertainty.
Because right now, I’m not just looking at higher prices. I’m looking at a major supply disruption. Hundreds of millions of barrels are at risk of being removed from the market, while transportation is getting harder and energy infrastructure is being hit.
All of this creates pressure that can easily spill into the real economy, affecting inflation and the cost of living.
And if I look at the stock market, the situation feels very similar. Neither clearly bullish nor bearish. Everyone is waiting to see what happens next. That’s why we’re seeing neutral closes.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
If I take a step back, I see two main scenarios from here.
In the first one, some kind of agreement is reached, the Strait reopens, and markets calm down.
In the second, the situation escalates further, supply tightens even more, and oil prices move even higher.
And that’s exactly what’s keeping markets on edge right now. There’s simply no clear direction.
