Not only are the odds of a 25bp rate cut close to 100%, the odds of a cut of AT LEAST 25bp are 100%. It would be a massive shock to the markets should the Fed end up not cutting, and the Fed doesn't like being a surprise factor. So yes, it's happening, and the markets will move. More importantly, however, is what kind of outlook Powell will give in terms of more rate cuts (a total of 2 or 3 before the end of the year), which will have a bigger impact, as this one cut is already priced in.