What if HIVE goes to 10 cents?

in #lbi3 months ago

Let me start by saying this is not a doom and gloom post. I don't know if HIVE will drop that low, I hope it does not. But for LBI, I would like to have a plan incase it does, because that kind of drop would present an incredible opportunity for us. This is just a speculative post, a thought exercise really. But it is also a planning post, where I'd love to get feedback from LBI holders on what moves we should make if this sort of HIVE price action comes to pass.

The thing is, we have a bit over 5000 HBD in savings. This represents basically a quarter of LBI's asset backing, at current prices. This gives us options, if the kind of HIVE price action mentioned above does come to pass.

We could...

  1. Trade it to HIVE.

  2. Trade it to LEO.

  3. Trade it to HE income projects.

  4. Some combination of the above.

  5. Not touch the principle, but swap the interest for HIVE.

  6. Do nothing different.

Let's look at each option in more detail.

Trade it to HIVE.

If HIVE goes to 10c, then our 5,000 HBD could buy 50,000 HIVE. This would change the dynamics of LBI, and give us lots of options. One option I'd like would be to power up half and hold half liquid. The liquid part would be just held, waiting for a recovery for HIVE back to 20c. Trade it back to HBD, then we have our HBD restored to 5K, and the profit on the trade would be the 25K HP we added. The other option would be to power up the full 50K and delegate it to income producing projects, and to build up much faster some currently small positions - like PWR for example.

This sort of move, if it was timed correctly, could be transformative for LBI. As HIVE recovered from its dip down to 10c, which I think most of us here would assume to be highly likely, LBI's $$ value would grow significantly. It's a nice thought, but there are other options also.

Trade it to LEO

We are LBI - LEO Backed Investments. If HIVE dropped to 10c, and the LEO/HIVE ratio remained as it is now, we could buy around 300K LEO. That would put us up to 500K and position us as one of the biggest LEO wallets out there. But could we buy that much in one hit? The HIVE/LEO pool has around 700K LEO in it. Us trying to buy 300K would push the price significantly. We could do it slowly, but who knows how much slippage we would incur.

I know there is mixed opinions amongst LBI holders about LEO, but it is worth floating as an option to consider.

Hive Engine income options.

This is a tricky one. That sort of firepower to buy up HE tokens would be nice, but what would we put it into. We could add to the DAB and EDS wallets, we could put a bunch into the PWR wallet and slowly fee it into the pool. We could pick up more BXT, INCOME, BRO tokens, or add in SIM BBH or other income tokens. We could also go into SPS, DEC or look at other HIVE gaming projects. Some one needs to bring me up to speed on @darkcloaks - I'm seeing it around but don't know what it is about.

All this could happen, but the age old problem with HE tokens is liquidity. Most of these would be hard to buy in size, and exiting the position down the track if we needed to would be even harder.

Combo.

Trade half to LEO and half to HIVE? That would give us 25K HIVE, and 150K LEO. That is still pretty transformative for the fund, and puts us in great shape for the recovery. We could add significantly to our PWR delegation, and build that wallet up much faster. Also, we would be positioned well if LEO takes off.

Lots to like about this option, more HIVE, more LEO and big $$ value gains when HIVE recovers.

Use interest only.

One good option, nice and safe and conservative, would be to leave the HBD untouched in savings, and simply pull all the interest out to trade to HIVE. This is much less dramatic, but our HBD interest is currently around 60 per month. we could buy 20 HIVE per day, roughly, with this.

Nice and safe, but if HIVE drops to 10c, how long is it likely to stay there?

Do nothing.

Stick to the plan, ignore the price and don't make any risky moves. The safe option, for sure. While HIVE, and presumably LEO, were down in this hypothetical slump we would be earning more, LEO dividends would be up as the portion of HBD interest that gets swapped for income would buy a lot more LEO. But that is about it, no transformative growth, no market gains from a recovery. Just slow and steady.

Does slow and steady win the race?


So there you have it, a bunch of options to think about for LBI if HIVE continues to drop to $0.10.

Will it happen, I hope not. But I think we should have a plan just in case. This is one I'd love to throw over to LBI holders, for advice and input. I do have some personal thoughts, but would really like to hear what you all think. There could be other options I have not thought about, feel free to make your suggestions.

Thanks for reading, have a great day,

JK
@jk6276


Here is some more of our recent posts to learn more about LBI:

https://inleo.io/@lbi-token/lbi-weekly-holdings-and-income-report-week-5-2-sep-2024-bag

https://inleo.io/@lbi-token/dividends-resume-for-lbi-holders-bci

https://inleo.io/@lbi-token/lbi-august-2024-recap-9vv

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I think many of us would buy Hive with our HBD and it would be perfect if it then doubled in value so we could buy our hbd back

Buy Hive at 10 cents

Truthfully, I'd probably just invest more. I wouldn't invest anything that I couldn't lose but I feel like it presents a pretty good opportunity to build a larger stake in Hive.

Isn't your token backed by LEO? Why would you buy HIVE with it..? Why didn't you name the project HIVE BACKED INVESTMENT.. or even HBDBI? If it truly is LBI.. then obviously you buy more backing ... LEO..

The project was created when we all had different understanding what Leo was. Currently the more proper name would be Leo Denominated Investment token

I was around when it was STEEMLEO..

True - we are called LBI. I took over the running of the project a month ago. It had been running for several years previously, and had used LEO income to expand beyond LEO into other investments. Currently, roughly 25% of the fund is held in LEO.

A rebranding is probably in order, but I have not gotten around to thinking about that yet, plus changing the token to a different one would be much more complexity than I really have time for.

That said, we do bring income from other sources and convert it back into LEO, pay LEO dividends, have our token paired with LEO in a liquidity pool and use the Inleo front end exclusively. Still pretty LEO Based I feel.

Like I said, buying LEO is one of the options I would consider in this hypothetical scenario.

Ok.. obviously someone forgot his sense of humor somewhere.. I'm just talking shit because I can. I'm good at it. We can't all be LEO Rockstars..

😆

there is no free lunches and everything carries a risk, so we need to keep positive as much as we can

I'm waiting to buckleup some rn!
Great time for buying ig.
(It's not financial advice for any one just my own estimation for myself)

If it drops to 0.10 ill be buying BTC to get more Hive to Power Up

At 10c i'll have to buy more hive. It would be irresponsible not to.

Trade it to HIVE. I like this one best and trade it back later.

I think using the interest isn't an option really. It's negligible at best. You need something like 8000 HBD in savings to even earn you 100 HBD every thirty days . Then you need to wait the three day period for that to unlock. I think some of the HBD should be held liquid for a quick move into Hive if the price gets to the right point. Then wait for a recovery.

Yeah - I put that choice in (the use interest only option) as one of the conservative choices. I'm interested to get a feel for how high or low risk people want to see LBI run. My preference would be to pull the savings, put it all in to HIVE, power up half. Keep the other half liquid and trade it back to HBD when (if) HIVE recovered back to $0.20.

But I'm keen to gather opinions on this - so I can have a firm plan incase it actually happens.

Go big or go home baby! It was stagnant for long enough, let's kickstart this bee-och!

LoL, IF... I'll pull my HBD savings and buy I guess. When we hit .10 it won't be a spike it will likely be a low plateau so the 3 days won't be an issue as I'll have plenty of time while we wallow in the depths of negligence. X just got banned and yet do we have ANY new users from it???? I feel like the knight guarding the grail in Indian Jones....

IF it happens, I want to have a plan ready to go. Would almost seem silly not to swap from HBD to HIVE at that price. I agree that IF it does happen, it won't be a quick move or a sharp recovery, so there will be time to implement a plan.

Our trajectory has been utter shite for years so it's hard to see a bright side to this. I mean 3speak can't even handle a 1 min vid in under an hour... The idiocy that is the funding is raping this place... I've found myself becoming more frustrated with the garbage but at least there is the menial income from the posting.

Congratulations on your historical returns and building a great brand here on Hive.

I've already expressed my point of view, but if the Hive price drops to $0.1 I would go with 5th option (maybe powered down some HBD to buy more Hive)
We could use the Hive Power to use for other projects, but I wouldn't trade any Hive for Leo or any other H-E token.
HBD has proven to be the safest of Hive ecosystem investment, however we ought to remember there's a haircut rule that when kicked in will result in complete depegging. So by using some HBD to buy some Hive off the market we will secure the price and by this we will secure our sweet HBD APR