Tony Seba is known to make some bold predictions. His track record is actually fairly accurate when it comes to technology.
In this video I discuss the claims he makes regarding EV pricing and how the prices are going to plummet, at least at the lower end, over the next 6 years.
▶️ 3Speak
While it might be good that vehicles will be cheaper, I don't think it will be good for traffic. In a lot of countries, traffic has been worsening because there are more cars on the road. In the Philippines, it has even regressed a bit, since people are buying motorcycles instead of cars to avoid the traffic [they split lanes, and squeeze everywhere]. Cars aren't also comparable to cellphones, where people change their phones every year. Even at 5k USD, the cost is too high.
Populations are still increasing globally yet new vehicle sales are down. So I believe we have reached peak auto is most of the world.
I agree. So I am curious how these will turn out. Sure EVs can replace the regular cars, but I don't know if they can profit much from it.
That is what the legacy manufacturers are dealing with. They cannot make a profit off the EVs. We will see how the Chinese do. Tesla is doing fine in terms of profit and BYD looks like they might be making money on their EVs but they dont break them out.
5000$ electric vehicle in 2025.
Are you trying to say that everyone will be able to afford it in the future?
At some point. Almost everyone is able to afford a smartphone, which is essentially a computer.
That is what happens with technology.
You’re right though. Initially smart phones were difficult to purchase but now it’s everywhere.
That is how technology works. It is expensive and buggy at first and then spread to the masses as the tech gets better and prices drop.
Wow, he has indeed great insight but to you do you think there are odds to his prediction
He tends to be pretty good with his forecasts. We will see how close he is. Watch over the next few years and see how things trend.
Summary:
In this video, Task discusses Tony Seba's prediction of $5,000 electric vehicles by 2030, mentioning BYD's $11,000 electric vehicle and the impact of decreasing battery costs. He also touches on the innovation in the EV space by companies like Tesla and emphasizes not to underestimate technology's rapid advancement.
Detailed Article:
Task starts by introducing Tony Seba's prediction of $5,000 electric vehicles by 2030, highlighting the current challenges with low-cost EVs available in China, which lack safety features and are not suitable for export. He mentions BYD's $11,000 vehicle released in China, hinting at the potential for future price reductions in the industry.
The focus shifts to the significance of reducing battery costs, with CATL's commitment to cutting EV battery costs by 50% in 2024. Task emphasizes the pivotal role of battery costs in EV pricing and the continuous advancements in material sciences driving down costs.
Furthermore, Task alludes to Tesla's next-generation manufacturing platform, driven by Elon Musk's ambitious vision. He acknowledges other players in the EV sector, like BYD, contributing to innovation and cost reductions, challenging the notion that $5,000 EVs are unrealistic.
Drawing parallels with the smartphone industry, Task illustrates how technological advancements can drive down costs while improving product quality. He speculates on the impact of software advancements in EV manufacturing processes, citing Tesla's over-the-air updates as an example of software's transformative role.
Task highlights the importance of profitability in producing low-cost EVs and the potential market opportunities in regions like Malaysia and Thailand. He concludes by emphasizing the rapid pace of technological advancements and warns against underestimating the speed of innovation in the EV industry.
In essence, the video delves into the evolving landscape of electric vehicles, discussing cost reductions, technological innovations, market potentials, and the transformative impact of technology on the future of affordable electric transportation.
Notice: This is an AI-generated summary based on a transcript of the video. The summarization of the videos in this channel was requested/approved by the channel owner.