I think you're wrong about the reason for the delegate HP going up. I may be wrong, but as far as I've been told it goes up exactly the ~3% APR that the HP gains in stake, when you delegate 100HP to any account for example 1 year later you will have approximately 103HP delegated to that account regardless of the vestshare values. The vestshare varies MUCH more than this small amount and varies both upwards and downwards while the delegated HP never decreases but only increases progressively by an average of 3%APR.

Apart from this small correction, I liked your analysis, the delegation to nexo.voter pays something very close to 20% APR and the token has a great price stability in the last year!

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