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RE: The US College Apocalypse

in LeoFinance7 months ago

It's all about what you want to do. It's a bad idea to go to college without a plan.

But let's put the question another way. What jobs that have traditionally required a college education (i.e. specific degrees) are going away? It seems to me like the core things are still going to be around for a while. Medicine, law, engineering, teaching, a multitude of sciences, and a variety of others.

Yes, there is a LOT of fluff in college. Tons of absolutely useless degrees. There have been for a long time. But if you are spending $100K plus for a degree in underwater basket weaving with the expectation of landing a great job when you graduate then you clearly haven't thought things through.

Also, learning things on your own is nothing new. The Internet has made it somewhat more convenient but there have always been books and if you happen to live near a college you can attend lectures for free. Getting a degree is like getting a certification. It's a way to prove to a prospective employer that you have some base amount of knowledge in the areas that you need. Obviously that requires that you are actually getting education in areas that are needed.

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The biggest challenge is whether companies move away from the degree requirement. This was something that was present for along time.

Certainly, the fields you listed do require excessive schooling and that will not change. They are also immune, to a degree, from AI, at least in the near term.

However, when you look at the number of schools, the fields you cited are not going to fill them. Here is the problem.

As far as jobs that don't have specific degree requirements, it's a good question. I think it depends on how competitive the job market is. If a company is hiring an entry level employee with one being straight out of high school and the other having a college degree, it seems they would still be more likely to pick the one with the college degree even if it isn't technically a requirement for the job. There may be a third option in some cases (specific training or whatever) but I don't think that will be true most of the time.

Having said that, every degree isn't worth the same. If you are a liberal arts major, you probably shouldn't be spending six figures in the vast majority of cases. The good news is that you don't have to. Many former "Community Colleges" have converted to four year colleges and they are relatively cheap (at least where I live). Certainly nowhere near six figures for a four year degree. Even state universities are well below that number and are in fact often effectively free if you have good grades in high school. Most people spending six figures are doing so because they are attending private schools or out of state schools and have less than the required GPA/test scores for commonly available scholarships.

I'm not sure what schools have closed but i don't think most major ones are at risk anytime soon. At least where i live (Florida) the major state universities have to turn away a lot of people every year. At the University of Florida (using it as an example because it is my alma mater), the acceptance rate is only 30%.

In a list of 571 colleges, only three have 100% acceptance rates: Luther Rice University & Seminary, Brigham Young, and Midwives College of Utah: https://www.oedb.org/rankings/acceptance-rate/page/6/#table-rankings

University of Florida is in the top 100 in terms of acceptance rate so maybe that's not the best typical example. Back when I went, acceptance rate was closer to 60% so it has gotten much harder, not easier which is what you would expect if there were a downtrend in applicants. Picking a university in the middle of the list, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign has an acceptance rate of 66%. I suppose as you get further down the list, schools are more at risk in the case of a large drop off in applicants.

At any rate, i don't think there will be a college apocalypse. More like a much needed correction as those considering college make wiser choices about both where to go and for what. Then we'll see how elastic those tuition costs really are.