RE: When It Comes To Politics, Tesla Is Like Crypto

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RE: When It Comes To Politics, Tesla Is Like Crypto

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aussieninja in LeoFinance • 10 months ago (edited)

I think it matters a great deal... there are massive policy differences between the two parties. EV credits will disappear under the GOP, the EPA and NHTSA will undergo massive staffing changes with Schedule F, there will be new credits specifically for gas powered vehicles, a lot of the IRA implementation will be undone which will affect US-made EV-supporting industry, credits for renewables will disappear. I legitimately think Tesla is in trouble with a Trump-Vance ticket... but Elon will personally do extremely well because his various court cases with the EPA/SEC/FTC will disappear and SpaceX will get incredible contracts with SpaceForce.

I haven't researched this for sure, but I've read that Elon owns 13% of Tesla but 45% of SpaceX - so it's a good trade off for him.

That's not to mention that traditional buyers of Tesla vehicles are unlikely to support this move towards Trump, while conservative supporters are far less interested in purchasing EVs... especially once there are credits available for ICE vehicles.

10 months ago in LeoFinance by aussieninja

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taskmaster4450le 10 months ago

The ability to just roll things back that are law is not as simply as policy. To do this, the GOP would have to have all three branches.

As for the ability of the agencies to change things, that was just undone by the Supreme Court. The wings of agencies was clipped severely.

So the idea that Trump is going to roll into the White House, if he does, and just undo the laws that are in place is campaign wishes.

That's not to mention that traditional buyers of Tesla vehicles are unlikely to support this move towards Trump, while conservative supporters are far less interested in purchasing EVs... especially once there are credits available for ICE vehicles.

Even if that were true, which is no longer the case, what are those on the left going to do, buy ICE vehicles? What EVs are they going to buy? GM? Mary Barra had to admit they are not going to reach their target of 1M EVs in 2025.

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aussieninja 10 months ago (edited)

There's far more nuance here that I definitely don't understand.

For things like the New Clean Vehicle Credit, which I believe is part of IRA, couldn't the GOP get rid of it, because that credit isn't a law? Or could they reduce it? Or can they appoint new IRS staff that just never enact on it? I think there is a lot the GOP can do to disrupt the energy transition without actually needing to change laws. Especially with the Schedule F plans in Project 2025.

The Chevron ruling does clip agencies powers, but it does so reactively not proactively. So agencies can still enact policy or act in a particular way, but the courts have the ultimate say on whether an action was within the agencies per view. With a Conservative Supreme Court and a Conservative Executive branch, the agencies could essentially do what Trump wants them to do without any means of pushback.

Sorry, which part of my quote do you think is untrue? Tesla buyers being mostly left-leaning customers and/or conservatives not being interested in EVs? Or both?

This Gallup poll is from a year ago, and obviously a lot has changed:

71% of Republicans polled would not buy an EV. Considering that Trump has often talked negatively about EVs and renewable energy, I don't imagine it's changed that much (although happy to be wrong here).

Honestly... yes, I think left-leaning people might be heavily incentivized to buy ICE vehicles if Trump gets in. I think if Vance's ICE vehicle credits go through, US companies will pivot away from EVs and Hybrids and so people will either have to buy foreign EVs that will have heavy tariffs on them, while also deal with crumbling charging infrastructure, buy Trump-supporting-Teslas, or continue buying cheaper ICE vehicles. It will likely be a tough choice.

Obviously trying to predict how anything will play out is always a foolish endeavor... but I'm personally very concerned that the global energy transition will suffer massive delays under a change in US government.

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