Well, I didn't do so great with the group predicitons. only three out of eight correct and only two out of four semi-finalists. I did give myself the caveat that group B could be any two of the three Test teams but I'll welcome anyone showing me their predicitons that Afghanistan would qualify and Australia be out.
Check ho things finished here:
| Group One | Group Two | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction | Result | Prediction | Result |
| India | India | West Indies | South Africa |
| Australia | Afghanistan | England | England |
| Bangladesh | Australia | South Africa | West Indies |
| Afghanistan | Bangladesh | USA | USA |
The fact I'm not a great prediction machine will not stop me making guesses as to semi-final winners later in the post.
A couple of stats about the Super Eight stage:
Matches averaged 35 boundaries each. This is about ten more than averaged in the initial round.
Afghanistan are the first Association team to qualify for a T20 Semi-final and only the scond such to reach this far in either version of the cricket workd cup - Kenya also reached this stage in 2003.
Afghanistan have the best bowler and most prolifc batter of the tournament up to now. Rahmanulla Gurbaz has scored a total of 281 runs. Fazalhaq Farooqi has taken 16 wickets, and his 5 for 9 runs against Namibia are the best single innings haul.
And so, onto the Semi Finals.
Match One
The first match is South Africa v Afghanistan at the Brian Lara Cricket Academy. Without exciting anyone but their own fans South Africa have moved almost serenely through the competition. The demolition of a poor Sri Lanka on June 3rd may have provided an insight into their bowling attack but they haven't blasted teams away, indeed Sri Lanka are the only team the bowled out. On the two occasions they've scored over 150, they've managed to squeeze the chasing teams run chase to failure.
Afghanistan have been beaten, they have been bowled out. But they also bowled out and beat New Zealand and Australia. What chance of them adding the third Southern Hemisphere Test team to their list of scalps?
The Brian Lara Cricket Academy has hosted four matches in the tournament. In 8 innings only 3 have got past 100 runs. The highest is 149. Afghanistan played on the ground in an initial group game so should have an idea of what they are up against.
This is only the ninth T20 international on the pitch. While the average 137 score seems low, it is affected by the four low scoring games of this tournament. But then the average is dragged up at the other end by a match where England & the West Indies scored 459 runs.
I wouldn't be surprised to see an opening innings in the 140-160 range and the chase being close.
The data says South Africa wins, but wouldn't we all love to see Afghanistan defy the odds again?
Match Two
For the second finals in succession India and England face each other in the semi-final. The match will be played at the Guyana National Stadium.
The teams have played each other 23 times with India slightly ahead by 12 wins to 11. However, England have won the last two, including the 10 wicket semi-final demolition in Adelaide last time round.
Not that England are looking nearly as threatening this time round. While India are unbeaten in the competition with 6 victories and one abandonment, England lost to Australia in the group phase and South Africa in the super eight. They qualified on runrate over a Scotland team who had set them a tricky target before the match between them was finally washed out.
In three matches India have set commanding leads, and then defended them.
The ground in Guyana has seen five matches in the tournament, but in four one side was bowled out for under a hundred, so how much we can tell about how it is playing is limited. There is a risk of showers affecting play. If it were to be washed out India would progress to the final by virtue of a better record in the Super Eight stage.
I can't help but feel India are poised to revenge the defeat in Adelaide and join South Africa in the final.
Predicitons:
South Africa Win
India Win
You can check back tomorrow evening to see how my predictions have gone.
Check back tomorrow for reviews & updated boundary totals.
text by stuartcturnbull. graphic by Mir Rammez Raja & edited by stuartcturnbull via postermywall