It's definitely a coin flip at this point. I think the 4 year cycle might be broken but the probability of that it's not more than 50% in my view. Hopefully, the long winter wouldn't be as severe since the summer wasn't that spectacular.
4 year cycle is not broken at all. It’s literally fully in tact. For alts no, they finally stopped blindly following, I just mean Bitcoin action is right on point. We were never going to from three perfect 4 year cycles to the next being broken. We will see a transition first for a cycle or two where some details change and transition. I suppose alts not following Bitcoin could be one of details but strictly talking Bitcoin it looks like timing just moved by 6 weeks or so. It’s a coin flip if Bitcoin topped at 126K or one last leg up next few months but besides a slightly early or slightly late top everything is pretty much opposite of broken. Strictly talking Bitcoin.
!LADY !ALIVE !PIZZA
Yes, I think over time the effects of the 4 year cycle will be less noticeable, alts may also not be strictly tied to the price movements of BTC anymore or maybe BTC establishing itself as a macro asset that gets influenced based on the happenings of the macro environment, which makes it a reflexive kind on risk-on assets spectrum.
The bear low next 18 months or so will definitely be more than 50% from top. We are already down 33% in 7 weeks.
How about more that 75%? Could it also be that after the 33% drop or so, a lower high will first form and then a drop from that high to roughly 50% marking a bottom?
Just thinking out loud here, markets are always unpredictable.
Possibly. 75% seems high to me but everybody’s saying that. We did these last cycles and the most recent we were over a trillion cap & still went from 69K to 15K which is in that wheel house. So yeah 75% definitely possible, many think due to mass market holders and instruments it won’t go that low but we did last time and that was already in trillion cap area. So possible. If we repeat last time we’d hit about 30K if 126K was top in a 75%ish move. I think exact bottom is the impossible to predict. The top being in prediction is easier because it’s using a timeline that’s been repeated over & over but if u asked me 6 months ago to predict number I’d say no clue. And obviously if we do get another leg up do the math from whatever that number is. I would guess we go below 50K for next bear bottom regardless though. But we’ll see. I buy some twice a month no matter the price. I just reduce the $ amount when it’s over 100K. But I dollar cost average always! !LADY !PIZZA !ALIVE
Yes, I think that's the name of the game across a longer time frame, DCA during downtrends and selling a bit during uptrends to lock in some profits. I've not been fairly consistent with it but it seems opportunities to buy cheaper are on the horizon. I'd make sure to capitalize on those :)